COMMODITY · MACRO INTELLIGENCE
Indexed to January high = 100. −37% by Jun 8, the worst-performing major index tracked by Bloomberg.
Higher = weaker rupiah. Broke the psychological 18,000 line on Jun 4; over −8% year-to-date.
USD/tonne. Quota-cut signal and sulfur-supply panic drove the spike; tariffs and re-filing unwound it.
The intervention that triggered everything above: sharp quota compression plus benchmark-price and royalty hikes.
The triple-kill across equities, currency and credit was not driven by ordinary external capital flows. It was triggered by heavy-handed intervention in nickel-mining industrial policy and by extremely poor policy predictability — tighten today, loosen tomorrow, highly discretionary — which pulled the trigger on a self-reinforcing financial negative-feedback loop.