Public analysis from the IndoPhil Nickel Corridor
Latest deep reports
Nickel Ore Global Snapshot · 2026 First Half
Rebuilt seven-tab Deep Report on the PH → CN / PH → ID nickel triangle. 31.6 Mt of PH ore in H1 (+29% YoY), 70% to China and 30% to Indonesia; RKAB pared to 260 Mt for 1H; MHG (65%, +33%) is the elastic layer. Overview now runs a dual dashboard — 12 KPIs across supply and downstream — with 42 charts (grade splits, Top-5 origins, CN discharge ports, three-grade CIF vs HPM, six-round HPM, stainless 300-series CN vs ID, five-year source concentration, H2 outlook) and 8 curated video references. Leaflet maps of PH origins and China discharge ports; Overview is public, six deeper tabs require sign-in.
Will Indonesia ban Philippine nickel? · Policy vector field
A blanket embargo is an 8% tail event; the probability-weighted centroid sits on licence-and-permit control at 42%. Jan–Aug 2026 shipments reached 15.49 Mt, 31.9% of Philippine exports and roughly 70% higher year on year, but 84% of the flow lives in the 1.2–1.5 mid-grade band — the blending layer where damage compounds asymmetrically. Weda Bay alone absorbs 49% of Indonesia-bound tonnes, buyer CR3 is 81.6%, HHI 3,755. Twenty-eight dashboards on scenario probability, corridor concentration, blending exposure, price-elasticity and the licence pathway. Four international-media video briefings. Front 30% public; the full brief requires sign-in.
Monsoon impact · 88% unaffected
The southwest monsoon delivered 200+mm to Zambales and a gale warning on the west seaboard, but Philippine nickel's centre of gravity sits leeward on Surigao, Dinagat and Homonhon — untouched. This brief reads the weather as a supply event: zero PAR entries means no administrative sailing ban, and the binding constraint is sea state not rain. Eight dashboards on district exposure, wet-basis liquefaction risk and the Q4 dry-scenario window extension that matters more than any single rainfall. Three international-media video briefings. Front 30% public; the full brief requires sign-in.
168 sailings · and the shape underneath it
July 2026 booked 168 nickel-ore sailings out of Philippine load ports — the highest single month in nine years, above every prior peak including August 2024. This brief reads the ledger of 10,458 voyages: where 168 sits historically, why the rolling twelve-month total is also at a record, and why Indonesia supplied every ton of growth while China stayed flat. Six additional dashboards on Zamboanga's step-change, Weda Bay's 65% concentration, parcel-size drift, and the seasonal ceiling. Two international-media video briefings. Front 30% public; the full brief requires sign-in.
Sovereign Panda · IDN 2026 · CNY 7.0 bn
Indonesia's inaugural yuan sovereign bond priced 3Y at 1.90 % and 5Y at 2.19 %, oversubscribed 2.43× on a CNY 17 bn book. Only 23 % of the 30 bn two-year authorisation was drawn — the undrawn CNY 23 bn is the real story, a conditional pipeline that Jakarta can time against RKAB, HPM and permit-sweep events. This brief maps the deal structure, the syndicate roster, and where the credit sits inside the nickel corridor. Interactive charts, satellite site map, four international-media clips. Front 30 % public; the full brief requires sign-in.
Grade is not price · it is geology's bill
Indonesia's laterite grade fell from ~1.66% to ~1.57% in a single year — roughly four times faster than the four-year rule of thumb still baked into most desk models. This brief cross-checks a widely repeated depletion narrative line by line against public data, maps the RKEF-to-HPAL pivot, and lays out three variables that still decide the 2026-27 cost floor. Interactive charts, satellite site map, international field coverage. Front 30% public; the full brief requires sign-in.
The Spectrum · one ladder for the full nickel chain
A single radial map of 20+ nodes and a horizontal element-scan ladder — stainless, battery and cobalt chains read on the same axis, ore → intermediate → end use. Live SHFE / LME trade board at the top, six curated video references at the bottom. Meant to sit next to the desk while you compare quotes across chains. Front 30% is public; the full spectrum requires sign-in.
Türkiye Nickel · The Downstream Processor
Türkiye is not an ore-export origin — it is a downstream HPAL/MHP processor that imports laterite (Guatemala, Serbia, Albania) and ships intermediates to Europe. Three commercial deposits (Gördes, Çaldağ, Sivrihisar), Gördes running 255°C/46 bar HPAL, an arsenic-penalty risk at the ore level, and a China touchpoint that lives downstream in battery-material capacity — not upstream in tonnage. Eight tabs, embedded corridor map, four field-relevant video reports.
Philippines Certainty vs Indonesia · 1 : 13
Two neighbours, opposite regime designs. One Philippine statute (RA 12253) versus roughly thirteen material Indonesian regulatory actions since 2024 — RKAB cadence, RKAB quota cut, DHE 30 → 100%, progressive royalty 10 → 19%, HPM benchmark reset, second-rejection halt, and more. Four panels: parallel timeline, quantified divergence, instrument mix, and how variance-for-volume actually costs — and buys — in a corridor investor's discount rate.
Australia + India · Can They Balance China in Indonesian Nickel?
Jakarta is courting new capital — the Modi tour, the Albanese comprehensive partnership, TMI's Sorowako stake, Jindal's 49% buy-in at Sabang Port. But the arithmetic is brutal: China has committed ~USD 63B and controls 87% of Indonesian NPI capacity; Australia's committed capital sits around 13.6% of that, India's at 1.1%. Six panels: overview, capital & capability, real corridor map with 13 sites, supply & price, causality fishbone, chronicle with 7-event timeline and two international-media video reports.
PSE Nickel Equity Desk · Five Miners, One Corridor
A trading-terminal read on the Philippine Stock Exchange's five listed nickel plays — NIKL, FNI, MARC, ORE and NI. Two winners riding the H1 ore surge (NIKL +57%, FNI +115%), one dividend fortress (MARC 18% yield), one melting cash-burn story (ORE) and one ₱400M shell trading like an option. Includes 52-week snapshots, full company files, sector context, an interactive corridor map of 16 producing mines, and two international-media video pieces on Philippine nickel.
Nickel-Free Shock · Datang EV vs Indonesia's Nickel Gambit
A full-size 7-seater BEV shipped with zero nickel and zero cobalt — while Jakarta's RKAB tap turns from cut back to a de-facto flood. LMFP substitution, RKAB reversal, pricing-power shift. Two forces converge at LME 16,300. Six-panel board: overview, the Datang event, battery deep-dive with 4 photos + English video tour, LME & cost curve, corridor map, outlook.
Indonesia, Singapore · Inside and Outside Policy Change
Two geographies — one operating system. Jakarta rewrites the customs, quota, benchmark, FX and export-monopoly rules from the inside (KMK 32, RKAB, HPM, DHE, BUMN via PT.DSI); Singapore reshapes from profit funnel into a compliance-and-finance layer on the outside.
Indonesia Nickel 1940–2026 · From Mine to Permit
An 86-year chronicle of Indonesia's nickel story and the mine-vs-mining-rights game at its core. Six-panel board: dashboard, chronicle, geography, market data, players & rights, fishbone. From Dutch-era Sulawesi concessions to the 2020 ore ban, RKEF cost revolution, HPAL wet-process plants, and the 2025–26 RKAB quota shock — read as one board across ore grade, quotas, ownership and geography.
Policy Winter: Chinese Mining Enterprises in Indonesia's Nickel Sector
An investigative account of the 2025–2026 regulatory reset that reshaped Chinese-backed nickel operations in Indonesia — RKAB quota cuts, the HPM royalty overhaul, the Danantara/DSI export monopoly, the Delong bankruptcy, GNI's PKPU filing, and Weda Bay layoffs — with a live, verified-record equity dashboard across eight listed producers.
China Nickel Capital: Jinchuan Old Photos
A book-style photo album of 79 archival plates from the 1995 commemorative Records of Jinchuan Non-Ferrous Metals Company — leaders' visits, pioneering mining years, smelting, honors, and the maps of Jinchang. Page-turn reader with full English table of contents.
China's Nickel Foundry: Vice Premier Fang Yi and Jinchuan
From a single green stone found in the frozen Gobi of 1958 to one of the world's foremost nickel producers — the founding history of the Jinchuan base and the statesman-scientist whose eight working journeys turned potential into an industrial titan.
Philippines · Red Earth, Hard Limits
Environment and human rights in Philippine nickel. From the 2016 DENR audit that shut 27 mines to the 2024 killing of a village leader who testified against a nickel firm — how ground-level red lines have become the real ceiling on the country's value-chain ambition.
Nickel Asia: Philippine Nickel Resilience
From an accidental ore discovery on the Rio Tuba river in 1969 to the Philippines' largest lateritic-nickel producer — a half-century company portrait of the listed multi-resource group behind Rio Tuba, Taganito, Hinatuan and Cagdianao, now pivoting to a 1 GW renewable ambition by 2028.
The Furnaces Were Already Burning · Indonesia
Indonesia's nickel-processing industry was not built from zero by Chinese capital. It was inherited from a Western–state duopoly that had run for three decades, then rebuilt to a global cost limit. A correction to the founding myth — and what it reveals about the real shape of Chinese industrial competitiveness.
Indonesia's Nickel Policy Shock and the Equity · Currency · Credit Triple-Kill
How discretionary intervention in nickel-mining policy — RKAB quota compression, HPM benchmark hikes, and royalty ceiling lifts — pulled the trigger on a self-reinforcing negative-feedback loop across JCI, rupiah, and LME nickel. Composite dashboard + cause→effect timeline, Jan 1 – Jul 3 2026.
Next analysis in preparation
A new composite analysis publishes here on a rolling basis. Bookmark this page or share the top-level link — nickelcorridor.com/insights — to be first to see the next one.