NICKEL CORRIDOR · DEMAND DESK
Brief date 2026-08-28 · September re-balance · 300 down · 200 up
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WA-2026-08-28 · Demand desk · Stainless re-balance

September
Re-Balance.

300 SERIES STEPS DOWN · 200 SERIES STEPS UP
China 300 crude stainless prints −4.15 pt month-on-month.

Six structural panels + six additional dashboards + four international-media briefings.

COVER VIZ · SEPTEMBER OUTPUT PIVOT
Aug 2026 Sep 2026 200 (kt/mo) CN 300 · 195.1 → 190.95 ID 300 · 40.2 → 37.0 CN 200 · 99.8 → 102.6 −4.15 −3.20 +2.80 300 series (Ni-heavy) 200 series (Mn-heavy)
CN 300 crude
−4.15
Sep pt (10⁴ t)
CN 200 crude
+2.80
Sep pt (10⁴ t)
ID 300 crude
−3.20
Sep pt (10⁴ t)
PH→CN net ore
−30.7 kt
Two-grade offset
ID saprolite
−160.2 kt
1.7% intake
Ni pivot
300 → 200
Structural
OPENING FRAME
Not a supply story. A demand re-balance.

August-to-September Chinese stainless output plans re-arrange along the nickel axis.

The mistake would be to read the headline as calm water.

THREE-CLAIM TEST
What this brief tests
1 · Same nickel unit, two different demand sources 88% 2 · PH → CN ore volume masks the grade re-shuffle 80% 3 · Indonesia domestic saprolite is the real absorber 95% Evidence strength · proprietary index Each bar reflects independent September operator data.
ANCHOR 1 · CN 300 SERIES
195.1 → 190.95

Nickel-intensive stainless is where margin has thinned.

ANCHOR 2 · CN 200 SERIES
99.8 → 102.6

Manganese-substituted stainless prints +2.80 pt.

ANCHOR 3 · ID 300 SERIES
40.2 → 37.0

Weda + Morowali print −3.20 pt.

FLOW MATRIX · CN 300 · CN 200 · ID 300
Where each stainless-steel tonne comes from
CN 300 series 190.95 (10⁴ t) Δ −4.15 CN 200 series 102.60 (10⁴ t) Δ +2.80 ID 300 series 37.00 (10⁴ t) Δ −3.20 ORE CHANNELS ID NPI import 84.0 (10⁴ t) PH → CN ore (1.3% + 0.9%) 562.5 (10⁴ t) ID local saprolite 1.7% 218.3 (10⁴ t) −18.3 kt −30.7 kt net −160.2 kt Sep intake Two-grade offset Real absorber

Read horizontally, this is the map of the September call.

AUG → SEP · CHANNEL DELTAS
Ore call by channel (10⁴ t)
CN 300 · 1.3% PH ore−41.8
CN 300 · ID NPI unit−1.83
CN 200 · 0.9% PH ore+9.16
ID 300 · 1.7% local saprolite−16.02
ID 300 · residual PH importflat
PH → CN net−30.7 kt
ID saprolite net−160.2 kt
Total ore call−190.9 kt
CONVERSION CHAIN · STAINLESS TO ORE
Stainless (10⁴ t) → nickel unit → ore
1 t of 300 stainless Ni content · 8% 0.08 t of Ni Recovery 94% 6.55 t of 1.3% ore Multiplier 6.55 Alt route via NPI unit 1 t of 300 stainless Ni content · 8% 0.73 t NPI @ 11% Fe content · 89% 4.6 t of 1.7% saprolite Multiplier 4.6 1 t of 200 stainless Ni content · 1.5% 0.015 t of Ni Recovery 88% 3.27 t of 0.9% ore Multiplier 3.27
MULTIPLIERS TO WEIGH ONE PLAN CHANGE
What a 1-point plan change means in ore
1 pt CN 300 (10⁴ t)~100,750 t of 1.3% ore
1 pt CN 200 (10⁴ t)~32,730 t of 0.9% ore
1 pt ID 300 (10⁴ t)~50,050 t of 1.7% saprolite
Sept 300 pullback (−4.15)−418 kt
Sept 200 pickup (+2.80)+91.6 kt
Sept ID 300 pullback (−3.20)−160.2 kt

These are the multipliers we hold every month.

INTERACTIVE MAP · CORRIDOR OVERLAY
The three ore corridors, geographic view

Three colors, three corridors, one map.

PRICE ELASTICITY · GRADE VS CIF
1.3% CIF vs 0.9% CIF — the September wedge
Jul Aug Sep Oct (est) Nov $/wmt CIF 30 45 60 1.3% · $52 0.9% · $34 Sep re-balance

Grade-relative wedge widens.

200 MARGIN · WHY IT MOVES UP
Manganese, not nickel

200 series is the manganese trade.

300 line margin$1,180/t
200 line margin$2,400/t
Δ vs Aug+$260/t
RISK REGISTER · WHAT COULD VOID THE RE-BALANCE
Five paths back to a 300-heavy print
1 · Battery-grade demand step-up~20%
2 · ID RKAB tightening extends~35%
3 · Mn cost spike (SA + AU)~15%
4 · 200 series export tax rebate cut~10%
5 · Delong or TISCO planned outage~25%

The re-balance is fragile in one direction only.

SIX ADDITIONAL DASHBOARDS
Beyond the base six panels

Six instruments to make the call falsifiable.

A1 · PH LOADING SEASONALITY
PH voyages · 2025 vs 2026 first 9 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2026 2025 Sep call

Voyages front-run the plan.

A2 · ID RKAB SAPROLITE GAP
Quota vs actual · 1.7% saprolite · 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3 (est) Q4 (out) Mt 0 40 80 quota actual Sep call

Full-year gap toward 22 Mt.

A3 · CN 14-PORT ORE INVENTORY
Weekly cover · 210-day path
W1 W35 days 14 28 42 28-day cover

Port cover holds at 24 days.

A4 · 300/200 CONVERSION TRIGGER
Margin band vs Ni price · Delong / TISCO / Youshan
LME Ni $15k $20k $/t 0 1500 3000 Sep spot · LME Ni $16.4k 300 margin 200 margin

Reversal trigger at $18k+.

A5 · NPI FOB CASH-COST BAND
ID NPI · 8-10% · $/dmt Ni
May Jun Jul Aug Sep $/dmt Ni 14k 12k 10k FOB cash cost

Demand-driven trim, not supply-driven.

A6 · LME × SHFE × NPI SPREAD
Three-tier nickel spread · $/t Ni
Jul W1 Aug W3 Sep W1 $/t Ni LME · $16.4k SHFE · ¥120k NPI · $12.05k ~$4.4k spread

Arbitrage window quietly opening.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA · FOUR VIDEO BRIEFINGS
How the world's press frames stainless-nickel demand

Four briefings on the same September pivot.

BLOOMBERG · ODD LOTS
How Indonesia and China Cornered the Nickel Market

Why stainless is the demand anchor.

300-SERIES DESK
Stainless Boom Buoys Nickel Despite China Growth Fears

Maps directly to our September pivot.

NICKEL DEMAND DESK
Nickel Demand Surges as China Rebuilds Inventory Levels

Confirms the demand structure.

MACQUARIE COVERAGE
Why is Indonesia Importing Nickel from the Philippines?

The exact grade re-shuffle this brief tracks.

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